Russian leader Vladimir Putin will touch down in India this week, as New Delhi continues to court both US and Russian cooperation on trade.
Ukraine peace talks are also expected to continue, following a successful negotiating session between Ukrainian and US officials in Florida.
In UK news, key data releases will provide an update of the country’s economic health, while traders have a final chance to join a government digital pilot scheme.
Putin in India
Russian president Vladimir Putin is set to visit India this week, with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi seeking to begin discussions on key defence purchases, alongside the 23rd India-Russia annual summit (4-5 December).
Bloomberg reports that the South Asian nation wants to buy Russian fighter jets and a defence shield. Its existing stock of both types of Russian weapon were instrumental to its military strategy during May’s conflict with Pakistan.
India is walking a fine line between cooperation with Russia and the US, which has previously condemned India’s Russia military purchases, with US commerce secretary Howards Lutnick raising the issue alongside imbalanced trade at the start of the year.
Although India’s reliance on Russian weapons has reduced in recent years, with increased purchases of US and European military goods, Russia remains the country’s largest supplier, and Indian defence secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh praised their long-standing military cooperation on Friday (28 November).
A punitive, additional 25% tariff rate was also applied to Indian exports by the US for its continued import of Russian oil, which has elevated its total tariff rate to 50%.
Ukraine peace progress
This week is also expected to be pivotal in the development of a viable Ukraine peace plan, following talks between US and Ukraine officials in Florida yesterday (30 November).
US Secretary of State Marc Rubio, who was present along with special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, said that it was “a very productive and useful session”.
Rustem Umerov, who led from the Ukraine side amid a corruption investigation into his predecessor and other leaders, said that the talks were “difficult but productive” and made progress towards “establishing a just peace”.
The talks are followed by several NATO meetings this week, as chief Mark Rutte is set to meet with European defence ministers today (1 December), while Ukrainian minister of foreign affairs Andrii Sybiha will attend Wednesday’s meeting of NATO foreign ministers.
Zelenskyy also travels to Ireland today to meet Taoiseach Micheál Martin and new Irish president Catherine Connolly. Since the start of the war in 2022, over 120,000 Ukrainians have sought refuge in Ireland, and approximately 80,000 are estimated to still be living there.
The Ukrainian leader was optimistic following Florida’s talks, saying:
“In the coming days it is feasible to flesh out the steps to determine how to bring the war to a dignified end”.
Over several weeks US, Ukraine and European leaders have been revising the initial initial 28-point peace proposed by the US, which had significant Russian input and firms highly favorable to Moscow. Last weekend, in Geneva, Ukrainian negotiators worked with the US to dilute the most contentious terms and emerged with a 19-point plan.
This new iteration was met with resistance from Moscow. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said last week that the revisions “erased key understandings”.
UK stat releases
This week will also see the publication of key economic data, including indicators of the health of the UK economy.
Following Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the British Retail Consortium will be releasing its economic monitor on Friday, while several UK Purchasing Mangers’ Indexes (PMIs) will be released throughout the week, with services on Wednesday and construction on Thursday.
The UK manufacturing PMI was released today, with November’s figures showing industry expansion at 50.2 – anything above 50 indicates industry growth.
While output rose for a second successive month and domestic demand increased, there was a slight decline in new export orders.
S&P Global Market Intelligence director Rob Dobson said that the numbers reflect “further signs of recovery in the UK manufacturing sector”.
He added that this was “especially encouraging” that those figures were posted in November, which saw “elevated levels of business uncertainty, and in some cases an element of gloom, ahead of the Autumn Budget”.
Digital Trade Corridor pilots
Firms are invited to join the government’s Digital Trade Corridor (DTC) pilot before Friday’s final deadline.
The Department for Business and Trade is seeking businesses that trade with France and Germany to participate in the pilot, through which trade tech providers will support firms to begin switching from using trade paper documents to their digital equivalents.
Previous pilots have led to 90% reductions in paperwork and emails, and a 25% reduction in admin costs.
It’s estimated that digitalising supply chains could net the UK economy billions in savings, but this would require fully maximising the legal framework for digital documentation created by the UK’s 2023 Electronic Trade Documents Act, the benefits of which are yet to be realised.
Firms are encouraged to sign up to the pilot here, before 23.45 on Friday 5 December.
Trade Remedies
There’s still time for members to sign up to this week’s Lunchtime Learning webinar on trade remedies.
Following a year of spiraling protectionism, many governments have sought to defend their markets from re-routed trade using remedies including anti-dumping, countervailing and safeguard measures.
Members of the UK body responsible for investigating threats to industry and introducing appropriate – the Trade Remedies Authority – will be taking member questions as part of an FAQ.
You can sign up for that session, which will be held at 12pm on Wednesday (3 December) here.
Other dates in the diary
- Monday: Keir Starmer delivers foreign policy address at Lady Mayor’s Banquet
- Tuesday: Office for Budget Responsibility at committee session on the Autumn Budget following early publication
- Wednesday: German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier begins State Visit to the UK
- Thursday: Vladimir Putin begins two-day visit to India
- Friday: EU Q3 GDP
- Saturday: Qatari Prime Minister and Spanish foreign minister address opening day of the Doha Forum
- Sunday: Elections to Hong Kong’s Legislative Council
