A pair of set-piece events will shape the international trade agenda this week. British and European ministers are scheduled to address a conference on UK-EU relations, while the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) host their annual Spring Meetings.
However, many will also have their eye on the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump threatens a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following a breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran.
EU-UK relations
EU relations minister Nick Thomas-Symonds and European trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič are set to address an EU-UK Forum on Thursday (16 April), amid reports that the British government is bringing in legislation that makes it easier for the country to align with European rules.
Thomas-Symonds and Šefčovič will give keynote speeches at the conference, alongside European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and UK Ambassador to the EU Lindsay Appleby, while discussions on cooperation and defence are scheduled throughout the day.
The Guardian has reported that ministers are planning to introduce new legislation that could sign the UK up to EU single market rules without the need for a parliamentary vote, using so-called ‘Henry VIII powers’.
The new bill focuses on the food and drink sector, but it could also be used to bring in secondary legislation that aligns other UK sectors with EU rules. This means that MPs would have limited ability to scrutinise future changes.
A Labour source told the BBC that the bill “will lower costs for businesses and get rid of the Brexit paperwork tax that adds to the cost of the weekly shop," while Conservative and Reform UK figures slammed the move. Liberal Democrat MP Munira Wilson said that the UK needed “a closer relationship with Europe, but we also need parliamentary democracy."
Earlier in April, Thomas-Symonds said that a reset deal could be completed by the early summer and confirmed that legislation towards this would be included in the King’s Speech.
World Bank and IMF
Both the World Bank and IMF are hosting their annual Spring Meetings this week, where their focus is likely to be on oil shocks, shipping and the health of the global economy.
Last week, World Bank President Ajay Banga warned that the Middle East conflict would have a significant impact on the global economy, even if a ceasefire is established.
“We've got a scenario that says that if it comes to a ceasefire now and three to four months of normalisation, we have some impact on growth, some impact of inflation, both on the wrong side,” Banga told Bloomberg TV.
“But if it comes back into a conflict and continues after that and this becomes a six-to-eight-month impact on before it normalises not the conflict but the downstream effects, and that's a very different impact on growth and inflation.”
Central bank governors including the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, Bank of Japan’s Kazuo Ueda and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are due to speak at the Spring Meetings.
The IMF’s Global Financial Stability report is due out on Tuesday (14 April), with other economic indicators also expected to be released throughout the week.
Later in the week, China will release key economic data that offers a glimpse of how the world’s second largest economy is adapting to the economic turbulence.
Middle East latest
After the apparent failure of Pakistan-brokered talks on Saturday (11 April), more peace talks are scheduled this week. However, a latest set of threats from President Trump appear set to undermine efforts to secure a non-military resolution.
Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors are due to meet tomorrow in the US to seek a ceasefire and begin direct negotiations, according to the BBC. However, the conflict is still ongoing, with hundreds reported killed in Lebanon.
Talks in Pakistan, between US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, lasted for 21 hours over the weekend but ultimately proved fruitless. Both sides subsequently blamed the other for being unreasonable.
Trump, while apparently approving of the direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. According to Trump, who has a long history of making threats and not following through, the US Navy would “begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”
US Central Command said that the blockade would begin today at 10am EST, or 3pm UK time.
“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
“CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”
Major US allies, including the UK, Australia and the Gulf Cooperation Council, have indicated they would not support this latest endeavour.
Over the weekend
- Hungarian prime minister Victor Orbán was swept from office in a landslide defeat. Opposition leader Péter Magyar’s Tisza party looks to set to win 138 of 199 seats in Hungary’s parliament – enough to overturn many of Orbán’s constitutional changes – and has already received congratulations from European leaders
- The Irish government has signed off on €500m in support to help businesses and consumers deal with rising energy costs, following fuel protests across Ireland that lasted well into the weekend
- Results from Sunday’s Peruvian presidential election show that Keiko Fujimori and Rafael Lopez Aliaga will head into a second round of voting
Other dates for the diary
- Monday: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries monthly oil report
- Tuesday: Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom HaShoah). Also, the Chartered Institute hosts its monthly Global Trade Live webinar on how to prepare for a customs audit
- Wednesday: First Prime Minister’s Questions post-recess. Also, The Chartered Institute’s Border, Ports & Logistics Special Interest Group will meet online
- Thursday: UK trade and EU inflation data released
- Friday: US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick set to speak at Semafor World Economy conference
- Saturday: All four UK nations compete in Women’s World Cup Qualifiers
- Sunday: St George’s Day
