Despite a shortened working week, the last four days have proven significant for the UK’s exporters and importers.
The picture for global supply chains in the Middle East remains unclear, despite the recent US-Iran truce, with air and ocean freight rates expected to remain elevated for weeks, if not months.
However, traders received some good news when UN trade data found that global trade momentum from 2025 has carried into 2026, while UK defence exporters received clarification from the government on the AUKUS agreement.
The big picture: A fragile Middle East ceasefire appears to be holding but signs of relief for international traders and supply chain professionals remain distant.
On Tuesday, Iran, the US and Israel publicly agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with talks scheduled this weekend in Pakistan to find a long-term solution to the conflict. However, despite claims from US President Donald Trump that the Strait of Hormuz is now available for commercial traffic, many in the air and ocean freight areas remain skeptical.
Lars Kensen, an expert in the container shipping industry, warned that “despite headlines to the contrary, and Trump's insistence on this on social media, the Strait of Hormuz is de facto not open.”
Supply chain data analysts Xeneta said that the ceasefire would bring “some immediate relief” to air freight, but that a return to pre-conflict capacity and rates is still likely “one-to-two months away”.
“The implications of the last 40 days are going take many weeks, if not months, to unravel,” Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade director general Marco Forgione told LBC on Wednesday (8 April).
Some US exporters are benefitting. The UK is now purchasing American jet fuel at much higher rates, while US crude exports are projected to hit a record high in April, driven by demand from Asia.
Good week/bad week: Good news for defence exporters, as an update to the AUKUS Open General Licence (OGEL) has expanded the scope of defence exports.
The OGEL now explicitly permits exports to UK, Australian and US armed forces anywhere in the world, including naval vessels and government service ships, as well as any contractors operating alongside those forces. The OGEL, which revokes the October 2025 version, also includes a clear exclusion list of countries where this permission does not apply.
Bad news for global manufacturing supply chains. A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that 17 rare earth elements – used in key technologies like electric vehicles, robotics and AI – remain vulnerable to supply chain shocks. Despite attempts to diversify supplies by the UK and allied nations’ amid increased demand, China still dominates the sector.
The IEA also said that around US$60bn is required over the next decade to remedy this, as well as concerted effort among several nations.
How’s stat? $2.5trn. That’s how much the value of global trade grew in 2025, according to the UN Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
This momentum has also carried into 2026, according to UNCTAD, but the organisation warned that “this positive trend remains fragile”, with threats from rising trade costs and geopolitical tensions.
Quote of the week: “Our trade mission to Greater Together LA is championing shared values—innovation, creativity, and entrepreneurship—to unlock new opportunities for both our economies to grow and thrive.”
Department for Business and Trade secretary Peter Kyle on the announcement of a UK delegation to the Great Together LA expo in California in May.
Major companies like British Airways, PwC and American Airlines are expected to represent the UK alongside Kyle.
The week in customs: Global Trade Today’s regular Customs Corner feature looked at the latest developments on the Customs Declaration Service, new ‘eFiling’ requirements for US imports and changes to how sanitary and phytosanitary goods are processed.
A recent Lunchtime Learning webinar also gave members advice on how to keep trade compliant and competitive under the EU and UK versions of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Other things we covered: The war in the Middle East has pushed up fertiliser prices, with food and farming experts warning that this could take years to repair and add to inflation concerns.
There have been hints that the UK and Mexico could restart talks over a long-stalled trade deal. Mexican trade minister Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez Romano is said to be seeking a deal that would complement the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Trump confirmed a new set of tariffs on pharmaceutical goods. A 100% rate could apply to companies that haven’t committed to manufacturing pharma products in the US by the end of his second term in office, but this will not apply to companies trading under deals previously reached with the US.
True facts: More than a quarter of the UK’s trade came through Heathrow Airport last year, according to analysis of government statistics carried out by the airport.
Heathrow said that government trade data showed that 1.59m tonnes of goods passed through the airport in 2025, with a total value of £293bn: a quarter of total UK trade by value. This amounts to 265,000 elephants or 130,000 of London’s double decker buses, according to a press release.
The average flight carried £600,000 of cargo, with around £127bn worth of goods exported from Heathrow in 2025.
